![]() ![]() However, it won’t allow you to predict the behavior of each interaction. Occasionally these interactions will produce something unexpected and result in non-linear and non-predictable behavior. Knowing the behaviors of the individual part can allow you to extrapolate the behavior of the group most of the time. ![]() ![]() Think about the world as a collection of interactions between components that are generally predictable but not always. Third, in spite of its outlier status, human nature makes us concoct explanations for its occurrence after the fact, making it explainable and predictable.īlack swans are the inevitable byproduct of complex adaptive systems. First, it is an outlier, as it lies outside the realm of regular expectations, because nothing in the past can convincingly point to its possibility. In The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable, Nassim Taleb offers a definition of a black swan.Īn event with the following three attributes. There are ways to account for this problem including an understanding of The Lucretius Problem, factoring in a Margin of Saftey, and having skin in the game. ![]()
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